By Maryam Shuaibu
Nigeria’s merchandise trade reached ₦34.79 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, with exports significantly outpacing imports and producing a trade surplus of ₦7.55 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
At first glance, the figures appear to tell a success story. Total exports rose to ₦21.17 trillion, while imports declined to ₦13.62 trillion.
Yet a closer examination of the data reveals a troubling reality that has persisted through successive administrations: Nigeria remains heavily dependent on crude oil for its export earnings despite more than a decade of diversification promises.
According to the NBS, crude oil exports were valued at ₦11.2 trillion during the quarter, accounting for 52.9 per cent of total exports. Other petroleum products contributed ₦6.78 trillion, representing another 32 per cent.
Combined, oil-related exports generated nearly ₦18 trillion, accounting for almost 85 per cent of Nigeria’s export earnings between January and March.
By contrast, all non-oil exports were valued at ₦3.19 trillion.
The figures suggest that while Nigeria’s trade balance has improved, the structure of its export economy remains largely unchanged.
For years, government officials have promised to reduce the country’s dependence on oil by expanding agricultural exports, promoting manufacturing, developing solid minerals, and supporting value-added industries.
Various programmes have been launched over the years to achieve these objectives, including interventions in agriculture, export promotion initiatives, industrial development schemes, and efforts to attract investment into non-oil sectors.
However, the latest trade figures raise questions about how much progress has actually been made.
Agricultural exports amounted to ₦1.17 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, while manufactured goods exports stood at just ₦302.64 billion. Solid minerals exports contributed ₦102.8 billion.
Taken together, these sectors generated only a fraction of what crude oil earned during the same period.
The implications extend beyond trade statistics.
Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil has repeatedly exposed the economy to external shocks. Fluctuations in global oil prices have historically influenced government revenues, foreign exchange availability, public spending, and economic growth.
When oil prices rise, export earnings increase. When they fall, economic pressures quickly emerge.
This vulnerability was one of the key reasons policymakers began advocating diversification more aggressively following previous oil price crashes.
Yet the latest data indicate that oil remains the country’s primary source of export revenue.
The NBS figures also highlight another concern: while non-oil exports exist, many remain concentrated in raw materials and primary commodities rather than processed or higher-value products capable of generating greater economic returns.
The persistence of this pattern raises important accountability questions.
After years of diversification strategies, why do petroleum products still dominate exports? Have public investments and policy interventions in agriculture, manufacturing, and mining translated into measurable export growth? Are existing programmes delivering the transformation they were designed to achieve?
The answers matter because Nigeria’s long-term economic resilience depends on reducing its exposure to the uncertainties of the global oil market.
The trade surplus recorded in the first quarter of 2026 offers positive short-term news for the economy. However, the underlying data suggest that Nigeria’s export success remains tied largely to the same commodity that has driven its fortunes for decades.
Until non-oil sectors begin to contribute substantially more to export earnings, the country’s economic stability may continue to depend on factors largely beyond its control.
For now, the numbers tell a familiar story: despite years of promises to diversify, Nigeria is still heavily hooked on oil.