By Maryam Shuaibu
Artificial intelligence (AI) could increase Nigeria’s and sub-Saharan Africa’s economic output by up to four per cent over the next decade if governments invest in digital infrastructure, skills development and effective governance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The projection is contained in the IMF’s latest departmental paper, Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa, which argues that the region stands to gain significantly from AI adoption but warns that the opportunity could be lost without deliberate policy actions.
According to the Fund, AI would contribute only about 0.2 per cent to the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) over the next decade under current conditions.
“Our research shows AI’s promise, but it also points to significant risks and challenges,” the IMF said.
It added that stronger investments in digital readiness could raise AI’s contribution to about four per cent of GDP over the same period, equivalent to nearly half a percentage point in additional annual economic growth.
The Fund said such growth would be crucial for countries like Nigeria, where millions of young people are expected to join the labour force over the coming years.
“That extra growth is critical given Africa’s vast jobs challenge. By 2030, sub-Saharan Africa will account for roughly half of new entrants into the global labour force,” the report noted.
AI’s biggest opportunity lies beyond offices
Rather than replacing workers, the IMF said AI’s greatest potential in Africa lies in improving productivity across agriculture, informal businesses and small enterprises.
It noted that AI-powered tools could help farmers increase yields through better planting decisions, fertiliser use, pest detection and climate adaptation, while also enabling informal businesses to improve inventory management and productivity.
The report cited Nigeria as one of the countries already testing practical AI applications.
According to the IMF, pilot programmes using AI-powered chatbots have shown promising results in improving mathematics learning among Nigerian students.
It also highlighted agricultural trials in Nigeria, Ghana, Rwanda and Uganda, where digital advisory services helped farmers improve crop yields when combined with better farming inputs.
Beyond agriculture, the Fund said AI could strengthen healthcare by supporting diagnosis and patient management, while governments could deploy AI-driven data analytics to improve tax administration and boost domestic revenue mobilisation.
Infrastructure remains biggest hurdle
Despite the opportunities, the IMF warned that Africa risks falling further behind if AI adoption continues to lag behind other regions.
“The risk is that the opposite happens. AI adoption in sub-Saharan Africa currently lags well behind every other region,” the report stated.
To unlock AI’s economic potential, the Fund urged governments to prioritise investments in reliable electricity, affordable broadband infrastructure, digital literacy and AI skills.
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It also called for stronger regulatory frameworks and regional cooperation to build public trust and encourage responsible AI adoption.
“AI depends on reliable electricity, affordable broadband and data infrastructure, and workers with digital skills,” the report said.
The IMF concluded that artificial intelligence should no longer be viewed solely as a technology issue but as a key driver of Africa’s long-term economic development.
“Africa does not need to win the race to build cutting-edge AI models, but it must find ways to use AI widely, cheaply and safely,” the Fund said, warning that decisions taken today by governments, schools, businesses and farmers will determine whether the continent narrows or widens its productivity gap with the rest of the world.